Pitt has not only won its last four games by double-digit margins, but it’s also covered in all four games. The tough Panther defense will do enough to prevent Miami from covering. Behind Pickett, the Pitt offense will put up a lot of points.
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Pittsburgh will be facing a Miami team that has struggled defensively this season. Pitt’s defense has been great at forcing turnovers, putting it in the top 25 in the country in turnover margin. Where this defense really stands out is in Havoc, ranking 15th in the country. The Panther defense allows only 19.6 points per game, which ranks 26th in the nation. While Pickett has stolen the show with his decision-making and post-game cold one talk, the Pitt defense has earned every right to be held in high regard. Behind Pickett’s arm, Pitt ranks third in FBS scoring offense, generating 45.3 points per game. His touchdown pass total ranks fourth in the country and tops the ACC. Pickett has tossed 23 touchdowns to only one interception through seven games this season. The redshirt senior signal-caller is having his name thrown around as a Heisman candidate for his impressive play so far this season. Quarterback Kenny Pickett is on a tear this season. It may not be the resume-building win that it once was, but it’s still a very solid win for the Panthers nonetheless. However, Clemson has an excellent defense and is still one of the most talented teams in the nation. Potentially too much is being made of the win over Clemson, given the Tigers’ offensive woes this season. The Panthers opened the week as slight dogs to Clemson before closing as 3.5-point favorites. Last week, Pitt hosted and subsequently disposed of Clemson by a final score of 27-17. 17 Pittsburgh looks to strengthen its grip on the ACC Coastal Division with a win over Miami on Saturday. Pick: Michigan State Alt Line -3.5 (+205) I need to see it to believe it before I bet a Harbaugh-led team on the road facing a quality opponent. And when the ball is in the air, it closes out on receivers hard, defending 5.71 per game (10th).Īnd finally, there’s Harbaugh’s record against ranked opponents on the road since taking over at his alma mater: 1-8. Michigan State registers 3.71 sacks per game, the fifth-best average in all of college football. Those last two were enough to push me into the Spartan camp. This team is not smoke and mirrors because it’s winning in a fashion that is repeatable: Run the ball, play great special teams, get to the quarterback and break up passes at a high rate.
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Pro Football Focus ranks the Green and White front as the 15th-best run-blocking unit, and Kenneth Walker IIII has racked up 997 yards on the ground at a clip of 6.6 yards per carry.
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Bryce Baringer is seventh nationally at 49.2 yards per punt, and Jayden Reed is far and away the nation’s best punt returner (26.2 ypr, 2 TDs).Īnd this is all before we even get to their running game, which has been dynamic from the first snap of the season. Their special teams unit has been flipping field position all season long. The Spartans are one of six teams in the nation in the top 18 in both points per play on offense and defense.
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And by moving the line from Michigan -4 to Michigan State -3.5, I’m getting a little bit better than double my money should it hit. I believe the wrong team is favored in this top-10 showdown. Iowa is in prime position to win this game handily coming off a bye week. The Badgers offense won’t be able to move the ball on the ground against the Hawkeyes, and they’ll run a thin line if they attempt to move the chains through the air.Ĭamp Randall Stadium doesn’t have the same buzz to it in noon games as it does in prime time. In last week’s win over Purdue, Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst only trusted Mertz to throw the ball eight times all game. Mertz has been a turnover machine who has also coughed the football up five times due to fumbles. They match up against a quarterback in Graham Mertz who has tossed seven interceptions to just two touchdown passes this season. The Hawkeyes defense leads the nation with 16 interceptions this season. Wisconsin has been just as efficient, allowing 18 points per contest along with 1.9 yards per carry.īut where these teams differ - and what will be the most important factor on Saturday - is the turnover differential.
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Iowa has allowed 15 points per game this season and just 2.7 yards per carry. The stage is set for a heavyweight Big Ten slugfest between Iowa and Wisconsin with both programs relying on dominant defenses.